A DIFFERENT TYPE OF FORECASTING
Our ambitious and talented teacher Kirsten Eerland is a professional Fashion Forecaster and she is fed up with the fact that people tend to misjudge this profession every single time. In below article she shares her vision on our profession. Proef is the applied forecasting consultancy in San Francisco that I discovered three years ago, while I was recovering for three months from a bike accident. At that time I had an amazing job as a buyer of luxury menswear at the Dutch department store, the Bijenkorf, a job many young fashion professionals aspire to be. However, I felt restless and decided to follow my passion and explore my fascination for change and the future. I wanted to be a forecaster. But how? The trend forecasting industry in Europe and especially in the Netherlands has been blurry. I could not identify with what was happening and found it striking that many trend professionals are looking at "the future", but neglect to reflect on what is happening in their own industry. Trend forecasting and in specific fashion forecasting found its origin in the United States and emerged as a commercial industry in line with mass production after the Second World War.[1] Nowadays, the practice of trend forecasting focuses on different disciplines and follows different theoretical models and systematic market analysis.[2] Recent debates and research demonstrate that trend forecasting evolved into a practice that can be applied as a tool to develop and guide transformative processes.[3] However, many renowned trend forecasters and consultancies are still relying upon on the same business approach since the 1980s and 1990s.[4]
One of the most striking changes in trend forecasting industry is the number of trends that co-exist at the same time. Traditional forecasts used to present around eight central themes. In recent years, this amount has increased to more than fifteen trend developments that can be identified simultaneously. These trends are linked to different niche groups and industries. Therefore, a traditional printed trend book which presents the trends in general for a specific year is often not relevant enough and has to compete with fast Internet services. However, these fast Internet services produce a massive amount of trend information, which is rather difficult for the client to unravel. The question remains; what is relevant and for whom? Trend forecasting is not only a practice devoted to the apparel industry. Trend forecasting understands change and often focuses on industries that change rapidly and involve emotional and socio-cultural behavior, such as consumer electronics, mobile phones, food, beauty products and even financial institutions and services. Trend forecasting delivers more than just colours and style. The trend professional delivers a strategic vision about the future and influences leaders. Therefore, trend forecasting can no longer be seen as an information provider but is concerned with the transformation of corporate cultures and industries. During my research on how to become a forecaster, I examined the forecasting and design industry in depth. I gained a master degree in Design Cultures at the VU University, followed strategic design courses at one of the most inspiring universities in the Netherlands, TU Delft, started teaching young students about trend research and finally graduated on the topic of the evolution of fashion forecasting. During this process, I discovered and defined four significance problems which exists in trend forecasting industry.There is not a single trend forecasting consultancy that knows it all, while often they claim to know it all and tell you what to do. Many trend forecasting consultancies do not understand the new technological industries, start-up cultures and how to make a connection with design and aesthetics.The majority of trend forecasting consultancies are focusing on producing content without relevance. They mostly develop pre-fab trend information, which they often present as a speaker on stage.Trend forecasting has an image problem. Many people still correlate the practice and product of forecasting with predicting new colours, styles and shapes in fashion and interior industry. These are short-term forecasts on a product design level and could be a translation of long term forecasting on a strategic level, but do not make any sense without this long-term vision. My problem was that I did not feel connected with what was happening in the forecasting industry. I did not believe in producing content, starting a blog about trends and getting "lost" in a growing landscape of trend watchers that are profiling themselves online. In addition, I did not believe that as a forecaster I should work alone as an independent professional and claim to know it all. My aim was to find a trend professional or a group of future-minded people from whom I could learn, especially about how to connect socio-cultural and emotional shifts with technological innovations and start-up culture. I was looking for like-minded people who reflect on the practice of trend forecasting as a continuous process that does not stick to following specific methods in fixed places, for a trend consultancy who tries to re-invent our industry continuously and practice what we as forecasters preach so we remain to understand on a psychological and emotional level what is happening. Furthermore, I realized during my research that trend forecasting is often more successful when it is applied on the strategic level of an organization and requires a longer process to guide your client to make the right decisions at the right time. Therefore, as a trend forecaster, you should invest in a loyal and trustworthy client relationship.I was lucky that I found Proef by randomly doing research online. I was fascinated by the fact that Proef did not participate in the production of mass trend content that is consumed online. I became a fan and after three years and many Skype sessions, Marieke, Proef’s founder, gave me the opportunity to join the team. Why is working with Proef different? In the past three years, I discovered that the Proef team and myself share the same vision about applying trend forecasting in business. Trend forecasting helps you develop an aspirational strategy for the future of your business and as a strategic forecasting consultancy, we will support you with that. Marieke developed a unique way of applying trend forecasting which I had never seen at any other company. Proef does not produce ‘prefab’ trend reports, but each question from the client is approached from a new perspective. The research, insights and application will always be developed specifically for and with the client and is therefore more valuable and easier to apply. Furthermore, Proef has offices in San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York. During my conversations with Marieke and my visits to San Francisco, she taught me a lot about what is going on in Silicon Valley, about technology and design industry and start-up culture. I regularly overloaded Marieke with many questions: How to connect technology in strategy and forecasting if you are not an engineer? How to look in the further future in a unique way, and still remain relevant? How can I collaborate and function better in a global and multi-disciplinary team in the Cloud? I am still curious to learn, to improve and to explore and I am happy that we now as Proef formulate new questions and answer them together. Currently, Marieke is the only strategic forecaster I know who understands how these rapidly evolving and different industries are connected. She positioned Proef as a significant part of a cross-sectoral network of people and business in both US and Europe. I am grateful to be part of the Proef team, a holistic entity of inspiring professionals. For each project, Proef selects a new team of professionals with their own expertise. The projects Proef delivers are therefore always unique, advanced and relevant for the client. Having said this, I do like the humble, kind and personal approach of Proef. Marieke and the Proefies give me the opportunity to expand and develop my skills as a strategic forecaster, they teach me, but most important they truly believe in me. With this article they deserve a sparkling spotlight for what they do. [1] Kim, Fiore and Kim 2011, p. 19. [2] Brannon 2010, Jackson 2007 and Kim, Fiore and Kim 2011.[3] Brannon 2010, Gaimster 2012, Petermann 2014 and Tham 2015. [4] Gaimster 2012.
